The End of the Trump Show?
It’s not looking like 2016.
Yes, I’m aware that depends on what polls you’ve been looking at this past year. But there are a few apples to apples we can take a closer at, indicating that President Donald Trump’s reelection chances are not as favorable as his first bid for the American Presidency.
The “Outsider” became President
Trump’s strategy in 2016 involved running as a supposedly successful businessman, an outsider, who would “drain the swamp” of career politicians of a “rigged system”. He would be the one to “make America great again”. The prequel to the talking point of today, “the best is yet to come”.
The Republican primary started with heavy-hitting against a very crowded field. And it got dirty. Trump became a bard. A satirist that encapsulated a person in a nickname. And that strategy paid off.
Remember “low energy” Jeb “is a mess” Bush? “One for thirty-eight” Kasich? (cause he only won Ohio), “Little Marco” Rubio? “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz? Yup. Which brings us to “Crazy” Bernie and “Crooked” Hillary.
Hillary Clinton was painted as an untrustworthy establishment figure that did something very bad with her e-mails (we never knew exactly what and future generations will probably never get a satisfactory explanation as to why this tarnished her campaign so much). All to say, this strategy is not working with Joe Biden.
Neither is the suggestion that Kamala Harris holds views that are somewhat to the left and therefore voters should be concerned about a possible Biden presidency that heads towards the left. A weak argument. She was the attorney general of California. The fourth-largest economy on this planet. Not a “progressive prosecutor” if you scan the record. Rest assured, she would be no more progressive than a former President Barack Obama. Who by his own admission in 2012 said he’d be considered a “moderate Republican” if it were the 1980s. There’s truth to that. And it speaks to the fact that the political discourse has been moving generally towards the right in the past decades.
Unless you’ve been reading and watching nothing but Breitbart, Glenn Beck, OAN, Fox News, and the like. Then you’d know Obama was closer to a moderate republican than to a liberal progressive democrat. The Affordable Care Act, dubbed “Obamacare” by some mean folks in media was, after all, Mitt Romney’s plan for Massachusetts.
The Pandemic, The Recession, and The Rallies
Trump may still draw large crowds at rallies, many of which have spiked coronavirus cases in the counties where these took place. However, he has openly admitted defeat in handling the pandemic. White House Chief of Staff stating Mark Meadows stated “we’re not going to control the pandemic”. Also, never mind the CARES act and the greatest upward transfer of wealth in history in the middle of a pandemic at a time where more than 40 million Americans were unemployed.
The recession is still going and that, as we have previously examined, works against the incumbent.
Let’s also not forget that the biggest crowds, prior to the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. (where more than 225,000 people have died), were the ones held by Bernie Sanders. And he lost to Joe Biden.
Full interview: With a massive rally in New York City as the backdrop, @BernieSanders and @AOC spoke with @ryangrim about the power of grassroots movements, electing progressives to Congress, health care, foreign policy, and more. https://t.co/iQ1Ob8PyE5 pic.twitter.com/QOtFyE4AHe
— The Intercept (@theintercept) October 22, 2019
Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton
If Trump achieves the same feat as he did in 2016. It would be another four years of full resistance mode for the progressive movement that was largely fired up by Bernie Sanders. If he doesn’t the movement will go back to holding a “liberal’s feet to the fire” or as Noam Chomsky put it: vote for Joe Biden and then haunt his dreams.
Take the “honest and trustworthy” measuring stick:
Fox News poll shows Biden leading Trump by 15 points on who is more "honest and trustworthy" https://t.co/U6NGIo5IVf pic.twitter.com/edTKPybVe2
— The Hill (@thehill) November 1, 2020
As The Hill observes, “unlike the new survey, then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received worse ratings on the same question in 2016, with 33 percent saying she was honest and trustworthy compared to 64 percent who said she was not.”
He’s also not doing as good with seniors or suburban women. Key demographics in places like Florida, a place that nobody is going to win by a landslide, and probably why Trump has been tweeting about this so much recently.
Suburban Women are trending strongly to our campaign because they want SAFETY, SECURITY, and love the fact that I terminated the REGULATION that would destroy their neighborhood and with it, the American Dream. Biden would bring the REGULATION back in a MUCH stronger form!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 31, 2020
In CNN’s final poll Biden leads by 12 points. In that same poll four years ago Hillary lead by 5 points.
The final @CNN poll in 2016 was Clinton +5. https://t.co/igEVFSEY3o
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 28, 2020
Battleground States
Here’s a checklist of states to watch out for if things are looking bad for Trump.
Florida: 29 electoral votes
The deciding state in the unforgettable Bush v. Gore election 20 years ago.
Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes
Without this state, Trump’s possibilities really narrow down.
Michigan: 16 electoral votes
Went for Obama twice, Hillary lost it in 2016. Also worth noting, Bernie won Michigan in 2016 against Hillary. This year Biden beat Bernie.
Ohio: 18 electoral votes
Went for Obama twice, Hillary lost it in 2016.
Minnesota: 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes, and Arizona: 11 electoral votes
They add up to 31 electoral votes. And you need 271 to win.
The Fox News President
CNN’s Chief Media Correspondent Brian Stelter dubbed Donald as a “Fox News President” three years ago. Because he’s amplified their talking points via Twitter, has used “Fox graphics to advance his agenda”, has hired former Fox staffers, and promoted Fox as "fair" and attacked its rivals as "fake”.
Roger Ailes is gone, Bill O’Reilly no longer helms #1 cable news show. Will Donald Trump be the last Fox News President?
The real test of the United States as a bastion of freedom and democracy will be, as always, the ability of the Electoral College to “trump” the popular vote. For Trump to lose, he’d have to lose by a lot. And maybe we’ll be exiting this dystopia thinking how close to the edge of the knife we danced towards the far right.
